Matthew Hoggard's ticked off

He's not annoyed, as far as we know. We're the one's doing the ticking on our list of England players who can perform in Australian conditions.

Hoggard was a little bit of a worry. During the last Ashes tour he was pretty inconsequential and while he's clearly a more rounded bowler now, you still want proof. In taking 4-76, he's given us that proof. Matthew, go and stand with Paul Collingwood, Freddie and KP. Wait for everyone else.

A draw's the most likely result, but England won't see it that way. Their plan will be to get a couple of quick wickets early on, dispose of the tail with clinical efficiency, have a bit of a slog and then declare to set up a nailbiting final day.

We believe that they can do it. Cricket's the only place where we believe in unlikely stuff. In real life, we quite often don't believe in reasonably likely things, like 'something nice happening'. We never believe that something nice might happen.